Coinbase trading revenue falls over 40% to $590M as prediction markets grow
Coinbase Q3 transaction revenue fell more than 40% to about $590M as retail spot trading cooled, while prediction markets passed $200M in annualised revenue.
TRADINGEXCHANGESNEWS
Daniel Hartley
10/30/20262 min read
Coinbase's transaction revenue fell to about $590 million in the third quarter, down more than 40% from a year earlier as retail spot trading cooled, according to results the exchange released after the US market close on Oct. 29. Net income rose to $718.7 million, lifted mainly by a gain of roughly $715 million on its crypto holdings.
Total revenue came in near $1.2 billion, roughly a third lower than a year earlier, according to figures reported by Zhitong Finance and Shattered. Zhitong said revenue fell slightly short of the roughly $1.233 billion analysts expected, while trading revenue beat a consensus of about $527 million. Retail spot volume dropped about 59% year on year, it added. Excluding the crypto gain, adjusted net income was $77.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose about 60% from the second quarter to $332.9 million.
Beyond spot trading
Coinbase said its share of global crypto trading volume rose to 10.7%, a fourth consecutive quarterly gain driven by both spot and derivatives. Prediction markets, launched in February, passed $200 million in annualised revenue, and daily traders in the product rose more than 60% from the previous quarter. On the earnings call, chief executive Brian Armstrong said the company had historically been overweight spot crypto trading, which declined quarter on quarter. Chief financial officer Alesia Haas said the new products were adding to activity rather than cannibalising spot trading.
Subscription and services revenue accounted for 49% of net revenue. Average USDC held in Coinbase products reached a record $22 billion, up 49% from a year earlier.
The early fourth-quarter picture points to softer trading. Transaction revenue stood at about $165 million as of Oct. 25, and the company guided subscription and services revenue to $550 million to $630 million, Zhitong reported. Coinbase also cut the midpoint of its 2026 adjusted expense guidance by $100 million.
The results follow Robinhood's Oct. 27 report, in which crypto revenue fell 55% to $120 million while event contracts brought in $173 million. Both companies are leaning on derivatives and prediction markets as spot activity fades, a shift that will be tested by the volatility that followed the Binance hack this week.
Source: Coinbase, Zhitong Finance, Shattered, Bitcoin.com News