Bitwise lifts Bitcoin 2036 target to $1.6M, sees 34.3% yearly gains
Bitwise raised its 2036 bitcoin base case to $1.6M from $1.3M, implying 34.3% annual growth, with a $130,686 bear case and a $3.67M bull case.
BITCOINETFS & INSTITUTIONSNEWS
Daniel Hartley
10/29/20261 min read
Bitwise Asset Management has raised its long-term base-case forecast for bitcoin to $1.6 million by 2036, up from $1.3 million a year ago, in its 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions published on Oct. 28. The target implies a compound annual growth rate of 34.3% from a Sept. 30 starting price of $83,557, CoinMarketCap reported.
The asset manager also set a bear case of $130,686, equal to 4.6% a year, and a bull case of about $3.67 million, or roughly 46% annually. Last year's edition had assumed 28.3% annual growth through 2035.
Chief investment officer Matt Hougan said Bitwise is "more bullish on bitcoin today than we were last year", pointing to a shallower cyclical drawdown, regulatory progress and investor demand for hard assets such as gold.
A weaker four-year cycle
Bitcoin fell 53.4% from its record of $126,080 on Oct. 6, 2025 to $58,717 on June 30, 2026. Previous cycle declines ran between 77% and 86%, so if this year's low holds it would be the mildest bear market on record. The base case assumes the four-year cycle weakens but does not disappear.
The model rests on institutional demand, fixed supply and concern about currency debasement. Citing Boston Consulting Group figures, Bitwise estimates institutions control about $147 trillion; an allocation of 1% to 5% would translate into $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion of demand, compared with roughly $14 billion of new bitcoin issued each year. It models the store-of-value market growing from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036, with bitcoin taking a 25% share in the base case, average annual volatility of 27.8% and a 0.43 correlation with US equities.
Bitwise lists quantum computing, AI-driven advances in mathematics and government action as the main risks, and notes the CLARITY Act failed to advance in Congress this year. The forecast lands as bitcoin trades below $80,000, under the starting price used in the model.
Source: Bitwise, CoinMarketCap, The Block